Machina Quanta

Machina Quanta

A Second Experiment: Entropy on Russell Index - Aug. 28, 2025

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Machina Quanta
Aug 28, 2025
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“The signal catches up to the SPX” - Machina Quanta

I am continuing with experimentation on the entropic model. A such, I have prepared for you the model results on the Russell 2000 index. Similarly, you can also review results on the Nasdaq in this article: Nasdaq Entropy.

At the end of the article I have the model output for Russell 2000 using options data at market close.

Some things that stand out to me:

  • Warnings identified for Yenmageddon and post-Election selloffs,

  • During Oct.-Nov. ‘24 the model correctly detected the post-election selloff in Russell that occurred during Nov.-Dec. ‘24 (large pink oval),

  • Entropy lagged the aggressive Tariff tantrum selloff this year by a wide margin (SPX and NDX models were leading warnings),

  • It also lagged identifying many upswings in the index - I won’t fault the model for this as we know it’s not designed with this goal in mind,

  • Correctly captured several pockets of weakness outside of Tariff window.

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