How Our Volatility Tools Find Pullbacks and Bottoms

My Journal

Apr 11, 2026

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machinaquanta.com ← analytics website for subscribers.

“The signal catches up to the SPX” - Machina Quanta

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We first embarked on studying volatility for predictive purposes in our last research piece: What Can Volatility Spreads Predict?

Since then we have spent months trying to develop tooling based on our initial research. Here is what we have come up with and how you use the new tool(s). Go to the volatility tab on machinaquanta.com.

Volatility Premium Spread

We researched the vol premium spread, which is the difference between realized volatility (RV, historical) and implied volatility (IV, future), for every day over 20 years to determine the relationship to forward returns in the S&P500 across various dimensions. This is what we came up with.

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