Put The Puzzle Together - Apr. 15, 2025

My Journal

machinaquanta.com ← analytics site & education material

---

I am attempting a shortened review/analysis today to see if this is more valuable to you than the Tues/Thrs market review. A few times this question has come up: how does one determine confluence and then size accordingly? Great question.

Let’s highlight from the chat what we’ve seen so far. I added about 40bps of SPY puts (end of month for now) as hedges. How did we come to that? I am hoping that talking through this will help me build the pieces we need for a dashboard so that everyone can benefit from this analysis in one place (also on the to-do list). Let’s score each topic below with an imaginary scale of say a range 1 to 5:

• 1 = very bearish,

• 3 = neutral,

• 5 = very bullish.

GEX

I’m looking for anomalies in GEX. They take time to surface so we just have to wait for now but if I squint enough it does look like the start of a lower high on GEX potentially. We are however in positive GEX and that does tell me that there is some buy-the-dip and sell the rip behaviour that market makers will likely exhibit. Given the potential anomaly I will say it’s maybe 2/5 (slightly bearish).

Source: https://squeezemetrics.com/monitor/dix

VIXpiration/OPEX Dates